Areas of Specialization

• Alternative Futures Analyses for Land Use Planning and Sustainability

• Mathematical modeling and spatial simulation of environmental and agricultural systems.

• Geographic Information Systems-based spatial modeling.

• Artificial intelligence applications in Bioresource management.

Current Research

• Alternative Futures for the Puget Sound Nearshore - A study focusing on applying our alternaive futuring strategies and technologies to exploring change in the Puget Sound basin. (http://envision.bioe.orst.edu)

• Alternative Futures int the Willamette Valley - Climate Change, Fire, Growth and Development and Ecosystem Restoration - a joint project with the University of Oregon to model and assess climate change/fire/human system interactions at multiple scales. (http://envision.bioe.orst.edu)
  
  

• Willamette Basin Alternative Futures and Land Use Change Trajectories of Change using Multiagent-based models of actors, policies and landscape production of ecological and economic goods and services. (http://envision.bioe.orst.edu)

• A multidisciplinary assessment of basin-scale ecological management, integrating agricultural impacts and issues, wildlife habitat management, riparian zone management, land use patterns, and socioeconomic evaluations with the goal of producing analysis tools for effective scientifically-based management. The project, conducted as part of the Pacific Northwest Environmental Research Consortium, provides an innovative approach which involves both stakeholders and scientists in exploring impacts a various management strategies via prediction of alternative futures and assessment of past trajectories of change. The approach involves multi-scale analysis of spatial datasets using statistical, GIS, and simulation technologies.

• Development of analysis tools for warm water pond aquaculture. The work focuses on developing simulation tools and decision support systems for the Pond Dynamics and Aquaculture Collaborative Research Program. It has resulted in the development of the POND simulation software.

• Application of adaptive modeling and analysis methodologies to resource management. The focus of these efforts is exploring newer technologies in nonlinear analysis, particularly genetic algorithms, neural networks and adaptive systems, and their application in resource modeling and optimization.

Courses Taught

• BRE 471/571 Biosystems Modeling Techniques

Selected Publications

Hulse, D.W, A. Branscomb, C. Enright, J. P. Bolte. 2008.  Anticipating floodplain trajectories: a comparison of two alternative futures approaches.  Landscape Ecol. DOI: 10.1007/s10980-008-9255-2

Guzy, M. R., C. L. Smith, J. P. Bolte, D. W. Hulse and S. V. Gregory.  2008. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests. Ecology and Society 13 (1): 37. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art37/

A. Lufafa, J. Bolte, D. Wright, M. Khouma, I. Diedhiou, R.P. Dick, F. Kizito, E. Dossa and J.S. Noller. 2008.  Regional carbon stocks and dynamics in native woody shrub communities of Senegal’s Peanut Basin Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment.

Bolte, J.P., D.W. Hulse, S.V. Gregory, and C. Smith. 2007.  Modeling biocomplexity – actors, landscapes and alternative futures.  Env. Modeling and Software. 22(5) 570-579.

Wallick, R., S. Lancaster, and J.P. Bolte. (In Press). Determination of bank erodibility for natural and anthropogenic bank materials using a model of lateral migration & observed erosion along the Willamette River, Oregon, USA. River Research and Applications.

Cox, M and J.P. Bolte. 2007. A spatially explicit network-based model for estimating stream temperature distribution. Environmental Modeling and Software. 22(4):502–514.

Watanabe, M., R.M. Adams, J. Wu, J.P. Bolte, M.M. Cox, S.L. Johnson, W.J. Liss, W.G. Boggess, J.L. Ebersole.  2005.  Toward efficient riparian restoration: integrating economic, physical, and biological models.  J. Env. Management 75(2): 93-104.

Berger, P.A. and J.P. Bolte. 2004. Evaluating the impact of policy options on agricultural landscapes: an alternative futures approach. Ecological Applications. 14(2):342-354.

K.B. Vaché, McDonnell, J., Bolte, J.P.  2004.  On the use of multiple criteria for a posteriori model rejection:  Soft data to characterize model performance.  Geophysical Research Letters. 31:L21504.

Meleason, M.A., S.V. Gregory, and J. Bolte. 2003.  Implications of selected riparian management strategies on wood in Cascade Mountain streams of the  Pacific Northwest.  Ecological Applications  13:1212-1221.

Meleason, M.A., S.V. Gregory, and J. Bolte. 2003.  Implications of selected  riparian management strategies on wood in Cascade Mountain streams of the  Pacific Northwest.  Ecological Applications  13:1212-1221.

Brugnach, M., J.P. Bolte and G.A. Bradshaw. 2002.  Determining the significance of threshold values uncertainty in rule-based classification models. Ecological Modeling. 160:63-67. 

Hillyer. C., J. Bolte, F. VanEvert, and A. Lamaker.  2002. The MODCOM modular simulation system.  European Journal of Agronomy.  18(3):333-343. 

Lamy, F., J.P. Bolte, M. Santelmann  and C. Smith.  2002.  Development and Evaluation of Multiple Objective Decision-Making Methods for Watershed Management Planning.  J.Amer.Water Resources Assoc.  38(2):517-529. 

Nath, S., J.P. Bolte, L.G. Ross, and J. Aguilar-Manjarrez.  2000. Applications of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) For Spatial Decision Support in Aquaculture.  Aquacultural Engineering 23:233-278. 

Bolte, J.P. 1998. Object-oriented programming for decision systems.  In:  Agricultural Systems Modeling R. Peart and B. Curry, Editors.  Marcel Dekker, Inc.  New York 

Peters, G., M.T. Morrisey, G. Sylvia, and J.P. Bolte. 1995. Determination of harvesting and processing effects on Surimi quality by computer analysis. J. Food Science. In review.

Nath, S.S., J.P. Bolte, and D.H. Ernst. 1995. Decision support for pond aquaculture planning and management. Proceedings: Sustainable Aquaculture 95. June 11-14, 1995, Honolulu, HI.

Bolte, J.P. J.A. Fisher, and D.H. Ernst. 1993. An object-oriented, message-based environment for integrating continuous, event-driven and knowledge-based simulation. Proceedings: Application of Advanced Information Technologies: Effective Management of Natural Resources. ASAE. June 18-19, Spokane, WA.

Bolte, J.P. and D.T. Hill. 1993. A comprehensive dynamic model of attached growth anaerobic fermenters. Transactions of the ASAE. 36(6):1805-1814.

Ernst, D.H., J.P. Bolte and S. Nath. 1993. A decision support system for finfish aquaculture. Proceedings: Application of Engineering in Aquaculture. ASAE. June 21-22, Spokane, WA.